Joe Biden opened his presidential campaign with a sharp, if familiar, message. “I believe history will look back on four years of this president and all he embraces as an aberrant moment in time,” he said in his announcement video. “But if we give Donald Trump eight years in the White House, he will forever and fundamentally alter the character of this nation.” On the stump, Biden has highlighted his relationships with individual Republican lawmakers and he tries to distinguish the larger party from its leader, to appeal to Republican voters who might be alienated by the president. “This,” Biden says referring to Trump, “is not the Republican Party.”
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Hillary Clinton took a similar tack in 2016 when she reached out to moderate Republicans and took on Trump as an unfit demagogue who amplified and sympathized with white supremacists. She lost. But Biden thinks he can do something similar and run against four actual years of the president’s behavior, versus the hypotheticals envisioned by Clinton. Democratic primary voters seem to agree. After a little less than two weeks in the race, he is the front-runner for the nomination, with many Democrats convinced of his ability to beat Trump.
Before they commit to him, however, Democrats should not take Biden’s presumed electability for granted. Yes, there is evidence he is well positioned to challenge Trump, but it’s also possible that Biden represents a doomed attempt to fight the last war, with similar results.
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The case for Biden’s unique electability rests on his overall popularity as vice president to President Barack Obama and his particular appeal to the blue-collar whites who backed Trump in the 2016 election. Fifty-six percent of Americans said they had a favorable view of the former vice president in a February Gallup survey, including 80 percent of Democrats. A more recent poll, from CNN, shows Biden leading Trump in a hypothetical matchup, 51 percent to 45 percent. That same poll shows Biden losing blue-collar whites by just 13 percent, a better margin than his competitors’ and a huge improvement over Clinton’s 37-point deficit against Trump in 2016.
This would settle the question of Biden’s electability if the election were held today. But if he wins the nomination, he will face a scorched-earth effort against his campaign. And from Clinton’s experience, we know that his personal appeal may not survive the onslaught.
Clinton’s unpopularity at the end of her campaign was a complete reversal from her standing at the start, when she, like Biden, was widely admired by the public. Large majorities held Clinton in high esteem while she was secretary of state — in 2012, 65 percent of Americans said they had a favorable view of her. She was so popular that at the nadir of Obama’s popularity, his aides considered replacing Biden with Clinton on the 2012 ticket. Clinton could even tout a connection with blue-collar whites, who powered her 2008 run for the Democratic nomination.
This, of course, did not last. By November 2016, Clinton was the most unpopular nominee in history, next to Trump. But Trump, at least, was an outsider to American politics. And he used his disruptive presence to draw a clear contrast to Clinton, taking her experience and making it a burden. In fact, you can look at the entire 2016 presidential election as Trump dispatching a series of establishment competitors, turning their records against them and blaming them for the state of the country. Trump has already begun to frame Biden this way, highlighting a foreign corruption scandal that reportedly touches his son, Hunter Biden.
Biden, like Clinton, is extremely vulnerable to Trumpian forms of faux-populist attack. He is a 36-year veteran of Washington who backed the Iraq War, cultivated close ties with banks and credit card companies and played a leading role in shaping the punitive policies that helped produced mass incarceration. As he did with Clinton, Trump can slam him on these issues and sow division among Democratic voters. It’s how he won in 2016 — targeting black voters with Clinton’s past positions to discourage and demobilize them. It worked. For all the focus on blue-collar whites, Clinton also missed Obama’s benchmarks with black voters. Had she reached them — or had she come close — she would be president.
It’s possible none of this will touch Biden, for the simple reason that he is a man. And the gender politics that constrained Clinton’s career — that harmed her standing whenever she reached for national office — don’t apply to Biden. Unlike her, he may retain enough of an appeal to blue-collar whites and remain the most formidable challenger to Trump.
There’s another possibility — that those blue-collar voters are gone. That their shift away from the Democratic Party, which began long before 2016, is permanent. And that Biden’s personal appeal isn’t enough to reverse it. Remember, if he wins the nomination, Biden will represent a coalition defined by its racial diversity and gender egalitarianism. If the backlash to those forces is driving the Trump movement, then the candidate who stands for them will face the same reactionary fury, regardless of how well he plays blue-collar identity politics.
Joe Biden will have to juggle this and the larger burden of standing for the past and its failures. Perhaps, despite running two failed campaigns for the presidency, he’s a deft enough politician to handle all of this and make a compelling case against Trump. Perhaps his electability isn’t a mirage. The point is that we don’t know. And with nearly two dozen candidates in the Democratic field, it seems premature to treat Biden as the one with the least risk.
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管家婆单双中特【如】【果】【说】【这】【个】【世】【上】【还】【有】【谁】【是】【冷】【玉】【极】【其】【看】【重】【的】，【异】【常】【宝】【贵】【的】，【那】【除】【了】【冷】【笑】【就】【是】【银】【狐】【了】。 【银】【狐】【的】【修】【为】【已】【经】【达】【到】【了】【还】【虚】【后】【境】，【只】【差】【一】【步】【便】【可】【跨】【向】【合】【道】【境】，【像】【她】【这】【样】【元】【丹】【异】【化】【的】【情】【况】，【修】【为】【能】【突】【破】【还】【虚】【境】【一】【般】【就】【是】【没】【什】【么】【情】【况】【了】，【达】【到】【合】【道】【境】【她】【再】【也】【不】【必】【以】【人】【魂】【修】【炼】【了】。 【于】【是】【她】【铤】【而】【走】【险】【在】【晋】【阳】【大】【开】【杀】【戒】，【以】【求】【早】【日】【突】【破】【还】
【黄】【铮】【长】【吐】【了】【一】【口】【胸】【中】【的】【沉】【闷】【之】【气】，【淡】【然】【一】【笑】【道】：“【爹】，【我】，【已】【经】【是】【杨】【休】【的】【人】【了】，【如】【果】【闫】【县】【令】【不】【在】【意】，【我】【倒】【无】【所】【谓】【哈】” 【一】【句】【话】，【惊】【得】【所】【有】【人】【都】【张】【大】【了】【嘴】【巴】，【包】【括】【闫】【明】【月】【在】【内】，【十】【五】【的】【月】【亮】【的】【再】【圆】，【也】【不】【如】【她】【此】【记】【得】【瞪】【圆】【的】【眼】【睛】【圆】。 **【霸】【有】【些】【脸】【上】【挂】【不】【住】【劲】，【将】【话】【往】【回】【拉】【道】：“【铮】【儿】，【莫】【说】【气】【话】，【杨】
【外】【貌】【上】【的】【优】【势】【往】【往】【是】【体】【现】【在】【第】【一】【印】【象】【上】，【可】【要】【知】【道】【并】【非】【外】【貌】【好】【看】【就】【能】【代】【表】【着】【对】【方】【的】【人】【品】。【所】【以】【老】【话】【说】，【人】【不】【可】【貌】【相】，【我】【们】【也】【不】【应】【该】【单】【凭】【着】【个】【人】【的】【外】【表】【而】【就】【去】【对】【人】【进】【行】【一】【些】【所】【谓】【的】【评】【价】。【接】【下】【来】【让】【我】【们】【看】【看】【在】【十】【二】【星】【座】【中】【这】【些】【在】【爱】【情】【里】【爱】【得】【很】【谨】【慎】，【不】【会】【以】【貌】【取】【人】，【当】【然】【也】【是】【很】【有】【自】【己】【的】【思】【想】【和】【有】【理】【性】【的】3【大】【星】【座】【吧】！管家婆单双中特【那】【一】【株】【曼】【陀】【罗】，【不】【断】【吞】【噬】【各】【种】【大】【道】，【在】【蜕】【变】，【在】【散】【发】【着】【不】【朽】【的】【光】【辉】。 “【轰】【轰】【轰】！” 【在】【紫】【虚】【眼】【中】，【这】【一】【方】【道】【界】，【在】【不】【断】【变】【幻】【中】。 “【曼】【陀】【罗】【成】【长】【起】【来】【了】。” 【古】【仙】【青】【月】【的】【声】【音】【淡】【淡】【响】【起】，【听】【起】【来】【那】【声】【音】【无】【比】【平】【静】，【但】【紫】【虚】【知】【道】，【这】【其】【中】【蕴】【含】【着】【无】【比】【激】【动】【的】【情】【绪】。 “【是】【啊】，【成】【长】【起】【来】【了】。” 【这】【道】【界】【之】【中】
【过】【了】【一】【会】【儿】【之】【后】，【上】【官】【静】【便】【见】【到】，【左】【天】【宁】，【也】【就】【是】【天】【宁】【刀】，【开】【始】【吸】【收】【黑】【修】【罗】【的】【力】【量】【了】。 【她】【这】【才】【想】【起】【来】，【天】【宁】【刀】【本】【来】【就】【是】【魔】【族】【之】【物】。 【虽】【然】【每】【次】【使】【用】【的】【时】【候】，【都】【是】【由】【她】【的】【灵】【力】【在】【支】【撑】，【但】【是】【天】【宁】【刀】【其】【实】【还】【是】【偏】【爱】【暗】【元】【素】【的】。 【因】【此】，【一】【眨】【眼】【的】【功】【夫】，【天】【宁】【刀】【就】【吸】【走】【了】【黑】【修】【罗】【体】【内】【大】【量】【的】【灵】【力】。 【刀】【身】【上】【的】【红】【光】，